Background
In mid-September of last year, India, accounting for the second most populated country in the world, was suffering immensely from the Covid-19 pandemic: there were almost 100,000 new cases a day. Hospitals were full, deaths were high, and the economy was slowly declining. But last month, on January 26th, India’s Health Ministry states the country has reached “a record low of about 9,100 new daily cases.” The rates for test positivity (the percent of coronavirus tests performed that are positive) has declined from 11% in August to 1.7% in January. The question stands, what caused this mysterious decline?
Reasons for the Decline
Scientists are still researching why India has undergone remarkable declines in its Covid-19 cases. Genevie Fernades, a public health researcher says, “It's the million-dollar question. Obviously, the classic public health measures are working: Testing has increased, people are going to hospitals earlier and deaths have dropped.”
India has implemented a mask mandate in public places, meaning all individuals must wear masks at all times. And, these rules are strict and lawfully enforced. In certain populated cities in India, police hand tickets to citizens violating the law, the fine can be up to 200 rupees. Individuals must wear masks outdoors, even when running or in “open-air rickshaws.” The leader of India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, appeared wearing a mask in very early stages of the pandemic. Even phone calls made on landlines or mobile phones play “government-sponsored messages warning you to wash your hands and wear a mask,” but have now been replaced to encourage people to get vaccinated. India has done a substantial amount to increase awareness among its population, and it is working: National Council of Applied Economic Research conducted a survey in India and reported 95% of its respondents said they wore a mask when they last went out.
The heat and humidity of India’s climate might also have an effect on the decline of cases. Some studies report that heat and humidity can reduce the spread of Covid-19. Elizabeth McGraw, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics at Pennsylvania State University says, “When the air is humid and warm, [the droplets] fall to the ground more quickly, and it makes transmission harder.” But, research is still speculative as the transmission of Covid-19 is still unfolding. On the contrary, some evidence suggests that India’s climate makes it easier for the disease to spread, “urban India's severe air pollution might exacerbate COVID-19. Not only does pollution weaken the body's immune system, but when air is thick with pollutants, those particles may help buoy the virus, allowing it to stay airborne longer.”
Scientists are still on the search for new information that might reveal what India is doing so well, in hopes to apply the same techniques in other countries. Demographics, herd immunity, and timing have all been reviewed as supplement reasons that could have played a role in this decline. But for now, researchers and health experts are still closely watching India.
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