Nuclear Negotiations History
Before looking at recent developments in nuclear negotiations with North Korea, it is essential to understand the previous three decades of negotiations and diplomacy. Nuclear negotiations began shortly after North Korea built its first nuclear facility in the early 1980’s. In December 1985, North Korea joined the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), an international treaty meant to halt the spread of nuclear weapons and promote peaceful cooperation. In 1933, North Korea refused to submit to inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and announced it intended to leave the NPT. However, this withdrawal is halted after discussions with the United States and ultimately, North Korea agrees to halt their nuclear production programs in return for oil and sanctions relief. Over the next ten years North Korea agrees to increasingly limit their weapons program as the United States provides more sanctions relief. However, in 2002, Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital, withdrew from prior agreements including the NPT after admitting to secretly running a program to power weapons. North Korea continued building their weapons programs until 2007 when they agreed to halt production in return for fifty thousand tons of oil. Negotiations halted for several years as Obama began a strategy of “strategic patience” in which he began increasing sanctions with the hope rising prices would encourage North Korea to resume negotiations.
Negotiations Under Trump
After Trump’s inauguration in 2017, he begins taking a bolder approach and declares North Korea a state sponsor of terrisom. In March 2018, Trump agreed to meet Kim Jong-un; however, by May, Trump called off the meeting citing recent “anger and hostility” in communications. Despite this drawback, the two leaders meet in Singapore in June 2018. Here, they sign an agreement promising to pursue peace and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. However, the agreement lacked details and at the second summit, the leaders fought over a difference in opinion on previously decided terms. Trump left the summit early but claimed that him and Kim Jong-un remained on friendly terms. In June 2019, the leaders agreed to resume negotiations and Trump traveled to North Korea, becoming the first active president to enter the state. Despite a seemingly improving relationship, critics claim that these summits were purely for appearances and did not make any real head-way in reaching an agreement.
What's Going to Happen?
Moving into president-elect Joe Biden’s presidency, it is likely (not certain though) North Korea will provoke the new administration with nuclear weapons and missiles tests. Biden’s strategy to combat this will be paramount in determining the long-term future of North Korea’s nuclear power.
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